00;00;00;01 – 00;00;14;06
Sylvain
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It’s great to see you again. This is your host of digital grocer Sylvain Perrier. And I’m joined by my co-host, Mark Fairhurst. Mark,

00;00;14;06 – 00;00;15;09
Mark
It’s great to see you.

00;00;20;11 – 00;00;29;08
Sylvain
And yes, it’s going to be a great show.

00;00;29;08 – 00;00;34;02
Sylvain
Yeah, it is. We have a scoop for our listeners.

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Mark
Hmm.

00;00;34;26 – 00;01;02;23
Sylvain
And I want to preface this, that this is not hearsay. This is direct knowledge of a large bank as well as a law firm who are directly involved with this project that both independently reached out to us to have access and have the authorization to publish some of our research.

00;01;03;21 – 00;01;12;16
Sylvain
Now, the big positive out of this is two things. One will be the transparency. What’s happening behind the curtain?

00;01;12;16 – 00;01;13;01
Mark
Yeah.

00;01;13;01 – 00;01;21;13
Sylvain
And two is the fact that our research is making its way into so many different hands. Right. So I’m excited about it.

00;01;25;27 – 00;01;29;14
Sylvain
So let me kind of give the build up to this big scoop.

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Mark
Yeah.

00;01;30;10 – 00;01;41;04
Sylvain
And this comes on the heels of a interview and a presentation that Fuji Simo did at the end of March that Bloomberg picked up.

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Sylvain
Yeah.

00;01;41;11 – 00;02;02;13
Slyvain
That basically said focus of Instacart right now, which is not to do an IPO and but certainly from the end of March to now, we have seen certain things happen in the in the industry that would lead to you know, I would say otherwise

00;02;02;13 – 00;02;12;18
Mark
from their marketing activity, their rebrand or refresh, from their product positioning which is eerily similar to us, if you don’t mind me saying.

00;02;13;29 – 00;02;17;02
Mark
Yes. So all of the pieces have been put in place.

00;02;17;02 – 00;02;17;24
Sylvain
Absolutely.

00;02;17;24 – 00;02;20;15
Sylvain
Well, the announcement of grocery outlet.

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Mark
Yeah.

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Sylvain
going nationwide and tackling a grocery outlet would be very difficult because of the way they manage their inventory.

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Mark
Mm hmm.

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Sylvain
So that’s a big announcement certainly the product positioning, which is in line with ours, quite frankly, also in line with DoorDash.

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Mark
Mm hmm.

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Sylvain
And just the overall climate today

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Mark
right.

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Sylvain
And we’ll talk about that later in the episode. We are seeing companies like DoorDash, where their stock is down. 50% at GrubHub. That’s up for sale, essentially likely at a loss versus what it was purchased. It’s oh, it’s massive.

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Mark
It’s like an $8 billion purchase.

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Sylvain
And yeah.

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Sylvain
no one’s gonna

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Sylvain
it’s no one’s no no one’s going to pay a premium.

00;02;59;10 – 00;03;20;20
Sylvain
And quite, quite frankly, the whole that whole segment of readymade restaurant food being delivered to home is in peril. And we called this out. We’ve also called out kit companies that are going to suffer any case.

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Mark
Yeah.

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Sylvain
So that’s what Fiji said. You know, press market indicates otherwise So about two weeks ago, Mark and I are on the road were actually we were out in Chicago.

00;03;34;27 – 00;03;49;24
Sylvain
We were doing the work with David Bishop visiting some stores at Amazon. And we were kind of touring a bunch of other retailers on our way through. I come back to Toronto, which I’m excited to say at some point we’re going to be recording more episodes on the road towards the end of May.

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Mark
Yep.

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Sylvain
So Mark gets a phone call from this large bank with a direct request.

00;03;55;21 – 00;04;10;02
Sylvain
Are you okay if we use some of your data to publish in a filing that we’re doing? And so Mark kind of brushed it off, right? Mark, let me just say it’s publicly available.

00;04;10;02 – 00;04;23;08
Mark
Yeah, yeah. We get inundated with sell side requests all the time, you know, to use our research. And it’s those reports that are publicly accessible.

00;04;23;09 – 00;04;33;19
Mark
Yes. I mean, I, I appreciate the courtesy of asking our permission, but, you know, at the same time, they’re also doing a lot of probing as to what goes into that research.

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Sylvain
Yeah.

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Mark
Sure they do. And I think at the end of the day, people have to realize we don’t do this research just to support our sales efforts.

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Sylvain
It’s fundamentally about educating the industry.

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Mark
Correct.

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Sylvain
And that could be a prospect, an existing client. It could be an analyst. It doesn’t matter and that research we know is consumed worldwide. So we know who’s who’s reading it, who’s doing what with it. So that kind of through a bit of a red flag.

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Mark
MmmHmm.

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Sylvain
And last week, a prominent law firm with a series of partners and associates reached out to us on offer and requested a phone call to request permission to publish our numbers as part of an SEC filing.

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Mark
Correct.

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Sylvain
And so we got on a call and which is which is I’m just kind of thinking how to how do I phrase this? Because it’s all right to receive a request to publish data in an SEC filing. So.

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Mark
Okay, what? There’s a lot of data points. What exactly do you want to publish?

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Sylvain
Right. Exactly. And and so we got on the phone.

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Mark
Yeah.

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Sylvain
The law firm and the law firm specifically kind of pointed out what they wanted to publish, which was the CAGR Would you know the number of

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Mark
forecasts,

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Sylvain
the market forecasts, right?

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Mark
Yeah.

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Sylvain
And, you know, Mark asked the question you said in your email, this is for an SEC filing. Do you mind sharing for who?

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Mark
MmmHmm.

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Sylvain
And came right out.

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Sylvain
It is for Instacart’s. IPO filing.

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Mark
Yeah.

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Sylvain
And so they are in the phase of prepping their filing.

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Mark
Yeah.

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Sylvain
And so our response was, hey, listen, maybe you don’t know this, but we’re competitors to a certain extent. And I think it’d be kind of awkward for them to have an SEC filing with their competitor, quoted especially their research.

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Mark
Right.

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Sylvain
We’ll leave that up to you.

00;06;49;00 – 00;06;55;20
Sylvain
So your decision this information is publicly available. And that’s kind of. how we ended the call.

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Mark
Yeah. Yeah. But it also it also confirmed it basically was the last dot, you know, in a series of dots.

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Sylvain
Yeah.

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Mark
And we’re good at connecting those. It’s right. So it’s. And, you know, good for them. I know they’ve obviously, you know, had to slash the valuation, you know, and it makes sense.

00;07;15;09 – 00;07;39;20
Mark
You know, they’re trying to rightsize themselves for this filing. But you’re right. We’re all really going to be interested in seeing is what’s behind the curtain when filing does get published. Because at that point, you know, I’m sure there will be some crafty marketing PR gymnast going on in that document, but it’ll be you can rest assured we’ll do another show in a deep dove of trying to decipher exactly where that business is going.

00;07;39;20 – 00;07;45;11
Mark
And how it’s growing on on the backs of our clients, grocery retailers.

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Sylvain
Yeah.

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Sylvain
And what I get concerned at the end of the day, quite frankly, is how are retailers winning in this space?

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Mark
Hmm.

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Sylvain
And more than anything. And Mark, you talk about this, but our latest research that we’ve seen is a strong indication that sales online for a certain basket size are down.

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Sylvain
And in grocery. But up in mass.

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Mark
Yes. Yeah. There’s so the March numbers, the April numbers will be coming out in about a week or so. The March 22 numbers U.S. grocery market online sales totalled about 8.7 billion, which was down about 6% versus March a year ago. Still, in context, as Brick Meets Click research has shown from August 2019 it’s still 4X what it was pre-COVID.

00;08;45;06 – 00;09;11;02
Mark
So patterns are still highly oriented towards online month over month. But again, the mass merchants are taking a bigger share and well we also saw was that delivery a larger share than they historically have been over the last two years. And we think that’s primarily because of the incentives among the large delivery providers trying to get market share.

00;09;11;13 – 00;09;20;26
Mark
But but also the flood of quick commerce providers in those large urban centers who are also discounting to win over consumers.

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Sylvain
Yeah, this this is where it becomes very interesting in the sense that those sub 30 minutes delivery companies are flooding the market with offers. You have the new I don’t want to call it the entrance, but the people that just want to test this and see what it’s like.

00;09;40;15 – 00;09;51;14
Sylvain
But then I start to worry about fundamentally, what does it mean for a retailer or for a company, what kind of consumer you’re attracting?

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Mark
I mean, is cherry pickers, cherry pickers among the delivery providers

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Sylvain
Yeah.

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Mark
And so I’ve heard stories that some 15 minute delivery companies are attracting very low margin baskets, small number of items, and at the worst hours possible for for delivery, like late evening.

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Slyvain
Late night.

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Mark
Yeah true.

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Sylvain
And that can’t be attractive if you’re a retailer trying to you know, to compete against, you know, these small organizations. But more so if you fall into that pit of wanting to service in that same type of fashion in under 30 minutes, I mean this is this is where we hear this you know in the last three weeks from a series of super regional almost semi national retailers they are concerned that this is a race to the bottom in my feedback to to these retailers that are on the fence when it comes to e-commerce because don’t get me wrong we are seeing to a certain extent still retailers that have not made investment in

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Slyvain
e-commerce.

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Mark
Correct? Yup.

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Sylvain
And I think what I want to say is, first of all, if you decide not to do e-commerce, it is tantamount to maybe giving a few of your stores brick and mortar a way to Walmart,

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Mark
Yeah.

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Sylvain
Or your closest, largest national chain that you compete with. So that could be Kroger or it could be Publix.

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Sylvain
It could be someone else. It doesn’t it doesn’t really matter at this point. Ahold Delhaize. So don’t think that consumers don’t want to shop online and they’re so enamored there with the brand and they love it so much that they’re going to.

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Sylvain
Convenience is still the dominant factor driving consumers to buy online

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Sylvain
Where the industry is falling short, in my opinion, is we get it.

00;11;45;15 – 00;11;59;01
Sylvain
You have a pricing strategy inside your store. But what we’re educating the market is you need to start thinking differently against how you sell price your products online.

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Sylvain
Since convenience is the first factor. So convenience is the first factor. Anyone that’s really well-educated in loyalty would say, Oh, great, you’re not selling a product online. You’re actually offering a service that wraps a product.

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Sylvain
So meaning is you can drive your pricing online not terribly higher or independent of inflation, quite frankly, where you can recoup some of the investments you’re making in.

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Sylvain
And what I fear right now is this quasi idea of racing to the bottom is going to be a self fulfilling prophecy for two reasons. One is that you’re seeing these mass of investments in these rapid delivery firms, which, quite frankly, as far as I’m concerned, is B.S. simply because the average family and consumer doesn’t need a full cart in 15 minutes.

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Sylvain
Yet there is that occasion where you may need a bag of chips because you’ve had too many beers watching Sunday football. I get it. But to to the debt. To the cost of what?

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Mark
Right, right.

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Sylvain
And I’ll I’ll give you an example last night my wife and I ordered sushi, which is not you know, it’s not grocery, but the the upcharge is.

00;13;19;25 – 00;13;34;29
Sylvain
And the fees were insane. And then you factor in inflation as well. So how is this sustainable rapid delivery? 15 minutes for a small product. So I get I get concerned in that that is a tranche of the market that’s going to scare retailers.

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Sylvain
Retailers will fall into that pit of wanting to do the same thing, not understanding that the basket and the type of consumer that they’re going to approach is going to erode margin for them.

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Mark
Yeah.

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Sylvain
So even greater concern. And so that profit prophecy becomes self-fulfilling. And there’s another factor on top of this is we’re coming out of the pandemic.

00;13;56;17 – 00;14;07;21
Sylvain
There’s less of a concern of the government shutting down our grocery stores. And so we’re seeing a flood of shoppers, not a flood of shoppers. But I mean, you quoted the numbers that are kind of coming back into the grocery store.

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Sylvain
We’re seeing that across our client base, which is the basket that $100, which is the in-store basket that migrated online, it’s migrated back, back in store.

00;14;17;22 – 00;14;29;20
Sylvain
Grocers are going to pause their investments in this space to focus on price control, price inflation. But the big players in the market are not correct.

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Mark
And they they know that the online channel online is growing at 4 or 5% per year.

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Mark
That’s the projection. And offline is 0.2?

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Sylvain
Yes, 0.2 So it’s really hard.

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Sylvain
So in Canada and in U.S., we have a company called Wealthsimple. Right. So it’s online app based wealth management investment and so on. In our company here at Mercatus.

00;14;59;20 – 00;15;07;15
Sylvain
Our average age is below 30 years old. Right. Mark and I are a part of the team that are the old

00;15;07;29 – 00;15;09;21
Mark
for dragging it in the older direction

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Sylvain
where we’re dragging it, we’re, we’re dragging them to, to, to, you know, us being the senior citizens in the business,

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Mark
Yeah.

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Sylvain
So we have, we have 15 individuals using, using Wealthsimple. And this reminds me of the 0809 debacle and the 080809 debacle. You had a lot of families in United States and Canada that suddenly overnight were struggling financially.

00;15;36;03 – 00;15;46;29
Sylvain
And the generation that grew up in that age watched their parents struggle dealing with their banks their traditional banks.

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Mark
MmmHmm.

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Sylvain
And now you see a sudden influx of nouveau fintech companies that are coming in with cool, sexy applications and products that are very appealing to the masses.

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Sylvain
And so that generation that watched their parents struggle or kind of being becoming very dismissive of the banks and are kinda of jumping in, that’s why you’ve seen the traditional banks really ramp up their digital products.

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Sylvain
And how did the social media. So I think we’re reliving through that same thing. So through the pandemic you literally had.

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Mark
That’s interesting.

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Sylvain
Yeah. Teenagers and kids who are already extremely adept at social media. And then I’m not talk about Instagram and Facebook.

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Sylvain
I’m talking about TikTok, and, you know, you know, following influencers on YouTube, quasi becoming influencers, they’re serving themselves.

00;16;41;00 – 00;16;48;10
Sylvain
And they they are you you know, they’ve never had to go into a bookstore to buy a book. They’ve never had to go into a record store to buy a record.

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Sylvain
And guess what? In this pandemic, they rarely had to go at your convenience. Or grocery store to buy groceries.

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Mark
Correct.

00;16;56;17 – 00;17;08;24
Sylvain
So if you’re a retailer and if you’re not keeping up, congratulations. You just let the next generation of customers that should be coming to your store that aren’t going to care.

00;17;08;24 – 00;17;11;13
Sylvain
Their house is less than five miles from your store.

00;17;11;25 – 00;17;18;10
Sylvain
You literally letting them go to the best online retailer.

00;17;18;10 – 00;17;25;06
Mark
Right. And that best in that best online retailer increasingly are the the mass merchants,

00;17;25;06 – 00;17;29;03
Sylvain
because they are investing

00;17;29;03 – 00;17;45;15
Sylvain
when it comes to technology. Okay. Let’s take away the operational component, operationalizing certain things. But there are easy wins that you can do from a tech perspective that aren’t going to break the bank app integration.

00;17;45;27 – 00;17;46;09
Mark
Yeah.

00;17;46;09 – 00;17;58;19
Sylvain
A good user interface great support. Like there are there are competing on price is passé

00;17;58;19 – 00;18;05;13
Sylvain
it’s important because there’s a segment of the population that values price. That’s why we have EDLP retailers.

00;18;05;13 – 00;18;19;15
Sylvain
My EDLP retailer, not Walmart, because I don’t shop at Walmart has in my neighborhood better quality produce than Longo’s than farm boy and that’s that’s a tall order.

00;18;20;02 – 00;18;43;09
Mark
And for those of you don’t know, Longo’s and farm boy are a higher end niche focused on on produce and quality assortment overall and that’s something if you’re EDLP and I think I know who it is is getting better fresh than they are.

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Mark
That’s that’s that’s a that’s a statement in itself.

00;18;46;02 – 00;18;54;23
Sylvain
Yeah. And again, price is important, but quality friendliness of service, a clean store.

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Mark
Yeah.

00;18;56;02 – 00;19;10;12
Sylvain
When it comes for me and when it comes to our online experiences. Tell me what you substituted in advance before you show up. Yeah. Don’t tell me. Don’t tell me when you did it at the door because I’m at this point, I just give you my stuff and leave. You’re not going to be able to fix the problem at this point.

00;19;10;23 – 00;19;19;19
Sylvain
So there are little things that you can do as a retailer to kind of keep that consumer happy and engage with you and focus. But not investing is just just not an option.

00;19;19;19 – 00;19;25;01
Mark
I agree. 100%.

00;19;25;01 – 00;19;38;04
Sylvain
I’m interested to see what’s going to happen in the next six to eight months. With inflation creeping up, we’re going to see the lending interest rate at the Bank of Canada is saying it’s going to be into a neutral position.

00;19;38;04 – 00;19;46;17
Sylvain
Right. So a neutral position, not to the point where it calms the the inflationary waters, but at the same time doesn’t stifle the band.

00;19;46;17 – 00;19;48;22
Mark
Doesn’t slam the brakes

00;19;48;22 – 00;19;58;06
Sylvain
on the growth of growth of our GDP. So neutral for us here in Canada will likely be around 3 – 3.5%. I think at this point, that’s what we’re calling.

00;19;58;22 – 00;20;12;20
Sylvain
Not sure what that is in the U.S. that the one thing that I think will have an impeding effect on this industry and on the rising price of food is the war in Ukraine.

00;20;12;20 – 00;20;24;05
Sylvain
I think people don’t understand that Ukraine has always been considered and this is a bit of the fuel to a certain extent why are Russia’s invading?

00;20;24;06 – 00;20;43;04
Sylvain
Besides this concept of just expanding the empire in a throwback to a throwback to the anything prior to the eighties, quite frankly, is the fact that 400 million households depend on what is called the breadbasket of Ukraine.

00;20;43;04 – 00;20;57;01
Sylvain
So grain, wheat that comes out of the country. And right now no one is sowing any crops. So at some point, you’re going to see that affect food prices across Europe.

00;20;57;01 – 00;21;18;23
Sylvain
And you’re already seeing right now the EU France specifically because they are having presidential elections, trying to create an environment where France is less food dependent on the rest of the EU. This is also a strategy along with energy that’s being discussed in other EU countries, which is going to have a ripple effect into North America, quite frankly.

00;21;18;24 – 00;21;34;04
Mark
And because we pay world prices and price in U.S. dollars, we all pay whether whether, you know, the product comes from Alberta or Ukraine, it’s all priced at a global value.

00;21;34;04 – 00;21;42;02
Sylvain
Well, we can Canadian wheat farmers sell their grain on the open market and and so obviously, you know, the tone will be set

00;21;42;02 – 00;21;44;16
Sylvain
and tone will be set for the rest of the food that’s prepared here.

00;21;45;09 – 00;21;56;11
Sylvain
And it’s unfortunate. It’s unfortunate the war. It’s also unfortunate when it started and I think part of it when it was started was to cause this this ripple effect

00;21;56;11 – 00;22;07;29
Sylvain
on terms, the saving grace will be energy will be a little bit less painful because summer’s coming into Europe, but it will be now we’re going to feel it into price of food

00;22;07;29 – 00;22;19;26
Sylvain
and God God help us if this drags on into the next series of winter months, because, again, the the barrel of oil will become more expensive and that will translate into everything else that we see.

00;22;20;09 – 00;22;21;29
Mark
Yeah.

00;22;21;29 – 00;22;29;27
Sylvain
So I’m excited for this episode and our scoop. And as always, it’s been great to chatting with everyone today.

00;22;29;27 – 00;22;37;25
Sylvain
And we will be back with some more exciting content and probably one, we’re going to be on the road

00;22;37;25 – 00;22;38;02
Mark
yeah.

00;22;38;02 – 00;22;40;06
Mark
We’re looking forward to that.

00;22;40;06 – 00;22;44;01
Mark
The Adventures of Thelma and Louis. I’m sorry, Sylvain and Mark.

00;22;44;22 – 00;22;45;24
Sylvain
Or Twister? What was it?

00;22;45;24 – 00;22;51;15
Sylvain
Jo, Jo and Bill Paxton and worse, Bill Paxton’s name?

00;22;51;15 – 00;22;54;07
Mark
The character. I will find it. We’ll put it in the show notes.

00;22;54;07 – 00;22;59;17
Sylvain
Yeah, I can’t. I can only remember his name was the Extreme because he went up to a twister with that bottle of Jack Daniels.

00;22;59;17 – 00;23;03;27
Mark
That’s right. That’s great. Well, I can rent a red dodge, so for everyone.

00;23;04;02 – 00;23;07;01
Sylvain
Okay, awesome. All right, thanks, folks.

00;23;07;01 – 00;23;19;06
Mark
We’ve got more great episodes on digitalgrocer.com. Connect with you on social media and digital brochure on Facebook, Instagram and LinkedIn and at digital _grocer on Twitter.

00;23;19;06 – 00;23;25;20
Mark
Like Subscribe and click the Bell Icon so you never miss another digital grocer podcast.

00;23;25;20 – 00;23;27;24
Mark
Your beard grew back incredibly fast.

00;23;27;24 – 00;23;29;06
Sylvain
It did? Yeah.

00;23;29;09 – 00;23;33;23
Sylvain
It actually I tracked it. It was about 35 days.

00;23;33;23 – 00;23;35;27
Mark
It’s like a Chia Pit.

00;23;35;27 – 00;23;40;13
Sylvain
It’s except without the green paste on my face and stuff like that.